Open Circuit As oil rationing spreads, what comes next? Plus, Fermi America's collapse
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Apr 30, 2026 Global oil shortages and rationing spread from Asia to the West, raising questions about supply shocks and energy addiction. The conversation explores which clean technologies could accelerate, China’s surge in cleantech exports, and shifting geopolitical power from electrification. It also unpacks the dramatic collapse of a hyped data-center developer and the management, political, and financial failures behind it.
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Rationing Replaces Price As The Balancing Mechanism
- A ~10 million barrels-per-day disruption cannot be solved by price alone because demand destruction at that scale is unrealistic outside COVID-style lockdowns.
- Result: intentional rationing (refinery cutbacks, industrial shutdowns, prioritized supplies) rather than market-clearing price.
Molecules Will Be Allocated Not Priced
- Traders expect access to molecules will be rationed by priority: essential industries will get supply while others are cut off, not simply priced out.
- This creates unplanned allocation choices governments and firms haven't prepared for.
Electricity Is Safer But Industrial Feedstocks Aren't
- Diesel, ammonia and other industrial feedstock shortages threaten manufacturing and agriculture even where electricity supplies look stable.
- U.S. natural gas and LNG buffers help electricity, but refined product exports can raise domestic prices and create geopolitical friction.