Milk Road Macro The Passive Bid Explained: How Markets Move Now w/ Michael Green
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Jan 27, 2026 
Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify and author of 'Yes, I Give a Fig', explains the passive bid and how index-driven flows reshape markets. He outlines why price discovery is distorted, how 401(k) defaults and target-date funds changed market mechanics, and the risks of flow-driven selling and systemic fragility. Quick, sharp, and focused on market structure.
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Official Poverty Line Is Outdated
- The official U.S. poverty line stems from a 1963 method that tripled a minimum food budget and has since been CPI-inflated.
- That metric badly underestimates modern costs, producing a 'precarity' line near $140k for a family of four in high-cost areas.
Valley Of Death Hampers Family Formation
- Between ~$40k and ~$100k household income many families face effective marginal tax rates near 100% due to benefit phaseouts.
- This 'valley of death' discourages marriage and childbearing and impedes household formation.
Childcare Costs Devour Family Budgets
- Childcare is highly regulated and labor-intensive, so it often consumes 20–40% of a two-income household budget.
- Informal childcare networks of prior generations vanished as single-income affordability declined.
