The KE Report Marc Chandler - Supreme Court Ruling On Tariffs, Economic Data (GDP), Fed Policy Update
Feb 20, 2026
Marc Chandler, managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of Marc to Market, breaks down a whirlwind week in markets. He walks through the Supreme Court ruling on emergency tariffs and its potential price effects. He highlights the surprise Q4 GDP miss and how data quirks muddy the picture. He also reviews Fed minutes, policy paths, and the dollar’s resilience amid mixed signals.
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Court Limits Presidential Tariff Power
- The Supreme Court struck down the emergency-power basis for Trump's tariffs in a broad 6-3 decision.
- That decision shifts tariff authority back toward Congress and creates legal uncertainty about refunds and future actions.
Refunds Are Unclear But Costly
- The Court sent refund details back to lower courts, leaving open questions on interest, penalties, and timeliness.
- Those unresolved issues will determine the practical cost and political fallout of reimbursing roughly $170 billion.
Tariff Removal Could Soften Inflation
- Ending emergency tariffs should lower goods prices and therefore ease measured inflation.
- That dynamic could reduce inflationary pressure even as other tariff routes require more congressional involvement.