The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel, Iran
Mar 7, 2026
Scott R. Anderson, Lawfare senior editor offering legal and strategic perspective. Natan Sachs, Brookings foreign policy expert on Israeli strategy and U.S.-Israel dynamics. Firas Maksad, Middle East Institute analyst on Lebanon and Hezbollah. They discuss shifting Israeli operations, Hezbollah leadership losses, mass displacement in Lebanon, Iran’s missile barrage, and the regional calculations shaping possible responses.
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Lebanon's Public Mood Is Polarized While Elites Wait For External Cues
- Lebanese reactions are deeply polarized: Shiite communities largely rally for Nasrallah while other factions quietly welcome his removal as a chance to restore state authority.
- Maksad stresses political elites will act cautiously, taking cues from external capitals like Washington and Riyadh.
Displacement Adds To Lebanon's Fragility
- Lebanon now hosts about 1.2–1.4 million Syrian refugees plus 200k–400k Palestinian refugees, and recent fighting displaced roughly a million Lebanese.
- Maksad emphasizes displaced Hezbollah supporters often shelter among communities hostile to Nasrallah, raising domestic tensions.
Pager Operation May Have Been Tactical Use Or Lose
- The pager operation's timing is ambiguous: it may have been preplanned or a 'use-or-lose' tactical move once detected.
- Scott R. Anderson argues sequencing oddities suggest some actions were driven opportunistically rather than purely strategic design.