Bloomberg Surveillance Dollar in Flux Ahead of FOMC Decision
10 snips
Jan 28, 2026 
Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau, gives a crisp FX take and explains Mundell's trilemma in modern capital-flow terms. Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, covers GDP outlook, tariffs and Fed tradeoffs. They probe dollar weakness, inflation risks, capital flows and how these forces shape policy and markets.
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Watch Tariff Pass-Through Before Acting
- The Fed should 'watch and wait' on tariff-driven price moves before changing policy.
- Hunter advises monitoring whether firms finally pass on tariff-related price hikes when households get tax refunds.
Front-Half Growth Trade Drives Cyclical Rally
- Citi sees a bullish U.S. growth narrative into the first half of 2026 helped by anticipated tax refunds.
- Stuart Kaiser frames this as a front-half cyclical trade that may reverse later in the year.
Mega-Cap Concentration Shapes Market Risks
- A handful of mega-cap tech stocks now represent roughly 40% of S&P 500 market cap.
- Stuart Kaiser notes the market needs those concentrated names to at least participate for broader market health.
