Plugged In: the energy news podcast A New Gas Shock?
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Mar 19, 2026 Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, gives trading-floor perspective on gas, LNG prices and storage risks. Saul Kavanagh, Head of Energy Research at MST Marquee, maps global gas scenarios and geopolitical shock impacts. They discuss Europe's thin refill season, intensifying LNG competition with Asia, vulnerability to Middle East disruptions, and price scenarios if supplies tighten.
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One Month Is The Critical Crunch Point
- The critical crunch point for LNG stocks is about one month of sustained disruption; stocks deplete in weeks, not months.
- Even if flows restart immediately, restarting ~80 Mtpa of capacity will take 1–2 months, so near-term pressure is inevitable.
Partial Returns Or Convoys Won't Fully Solve LNG Shortage
- Best-case restart could restore most flows within weeks, but more realistic is partial returns or convoy systems allowing only 50–70% of flows.
- Even with convoy success, LNG will remain significantly disrupted compared with oil because rerouting options are limited.
Market Has Underpriced Geopolitical Risk For LNG
- Markets have been complacent, pricing optimistic quick resolution; LNG reacts to near-term fundamentals rather than geopolitical risk premia like oil.
- Oil spiked on headlines; LNG prices lagged because it trades on week/month supply-demand balances.