Kontrarian Korner Kontrarian Korner #71 - Roberto Rios
Sep 23, 2025
Roberto Rios, known as The Peruvian Bull, is a macro commentator and author who dives deep into economic trends. He discusses the Fed's policies and the impacts of stealth QE on the Treasury market, revealing how stablecoins create pressure for shorter maturities. Rios shares insights on precious metals, emphasizing gold's role in anticipating QE. He critiques the unaffordability of real estate and the implications of institutional ownership. Lastly, he addresses asset inflation driven by liquidity and presents a unique perspective on Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.
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Shanghai Physical Premium Pulled Global Prices
- Shanghai's physically settled market created a premium that pulled Western prices upward via arbitrage.
- Physical settlement and Chinese retail buying boosted global bullion flows and imports.
Fed MBS Buying Fueled Housing Inflation
- Post‑2008 Fed MBS purchases channelled massive liquidity into mortgage markets and pushed home prices higher.
- The Fed's interventions kept credit flowing and anchored housing inflation for years.
Low‑Rate Mortgages Create A Liquidity Trap
- Widespread fixed mortgages reduce collapse risk but create a stuck-owner dynamic that lowers market liquidity.
- Owners locked into low rates avoid moving, shrinking transaction volumes and depress sales.
