Multipolarity Multipolarity Dialogues: Iran From The Inside
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Feb 12, 2026 Firas Modad, founder of Modad Geopolitics and Realpolitik podcaster, offers sharp geopolitical reading of Iran’s fragile regime and possible post-Khamenei outcomes. He maps risks of regional fragmentation, rival power plays from Turkey, Saudi and Israel, and strategic stakes around Somaliland and Red Sea control. Short, tense scenarios and shifting alliances drive the conversation.
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Strike Risks Strengthening Hardliners
- A US or Israeli strike on Iran risks empowering nationalist military rule rather than removing the regime.
- Strikes may accelerate Iran's deterrence programs and push it toward seeking nuclear weapons for survival.
Second‑Order Costs Of Military Action
- A strike could provoke regional fragmentation and draw neighbors into seizing territory and influence.
- Second-order consequences often get ignored, and they could destabilize the wider region including Pakistan, Turkey, Russia, and China.
Israeli And Regional Divergent Interests
- Israel may favour action that fractures Iran to eliminate a long-term threat, even if others oppose it.
- Regional Arabs and strategists fear the unpredictable outcomes of such intervention.
