Signs the GOP Coalition Is Fracturing

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party.

Then, Amy Littlefield — investigative reporter for The Nation and author of the new book Killers of Roe: My Investigation into the Mysterious Death of Abortion Rights — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating deep dive into the decades-long campaign that dismantled abortion rights in America, framed through the lens of an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery where the killers turn out to be the people you least suspect. Littlefield reveals that the death of Roe was not a single blow but death by a thousand stab wounds from multiple suspects: a Catholic hospital system that now controls one in six beds in America with reproductive care restrictions, an evangelical movement that amassed enormous political power in the Reagan era, a Democratic Party that was deeply complicit — the Hyde Amendment passed through a Democratic-majority Congress and real women died as a result — and operatives like Leonard Leo, who hand-delivered Trump a list of Supreme Court justices guaranteed to overturn Roe. Littlefield argues that anti-abortion activists brilliantly copied the playbook of the civil rights movement, that fighting against something is inherently more galvanizing than defending something, and that reproductive rights groups like Planned Parenthood and NARAL were constantly outflanked by a more organized, more disciplined opposition that understood single-issue voters could be leveraged for outsized political power.

The conversation turns to the future of reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs America — and the picture is more complicated than either side admits. Littlefield points out that the number of abortions has actually increased since the Dobbs decision, that anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose even in conservative areas, and that there's 80% public support that could be leveraged if the movement reframed its message around freedom rather than choice and connected reproductive rights to economic concerns. But she warns that anti-abortion activists aren't done: they want birth control and IVF outlawed next, and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum globally. 

Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high

05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling 

06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster

06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran

07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war

09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear

10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote

11:00 Gabbard says only Trump can determine what is an "imminent threat”

11:45 Gabbard wants she signal she doesn’t believe in war, but keep her job

12:45 We’re in the “cover your ass” stage of the war

15:30 Many MAGA true believers like Joe Kent & MTG wanted no more wars

18:00 If you can’t serve the president, resigning is the right thing to do

18:45 We’re less secure today than before the war started

19:30 Trump’s coalition has been fracturing for six months

21:30 Trump’s ranting and begging for help with the Strait of Hormuz

23:00 Strait of Hormuz has always been the Iranian regime’s leverage

24:00 Securing the strait requires boots on the ground

24:45 Trump is learning the hard way why you don’t alienate allies

26:30 If the regime stays in place, it’ll look like Trump retreated

27:30 This war has been confirmation that America is alone

29:15 This war could be more damaging that Vietnam or Iraq 2

30:00 We need real diplomacy and there hasn’t been any of it

30:45 Trump angling for joint operation with China which is… weird

31:15 Trump wants a way out, but boxed himself in

32:30 We’re starting to see softening support for other elected Republicans

33:15 Polls show Lindsey Graham & Vivek Ramaswamy’s support way down

34:30 Janet Mills decides to go sharply negative against Graham Platner

36:45 The vetting in the primary will be healthy for the Democrats

41:30 Amy Littlefield joins the Chuck ToddCast

43:00 Why did you choose the murder mystery framing for this book?

44:15 1 in 6 beds is in a Catholic hospital that have reproductive care restrictions

45:45 Agatha Christie’s style was an inspiration for the book

48:45 We know the political side of the story, wanted to tell the activist story

50:15 Getting the Roe v. Wade decision required a strong grassroots movement

50:45 The Catholic church has a strong organizational operation

52:00 Reproductive rights wasn’t a left vs. right issue in the 70s and 80s

54:15 Democrats have been complicit in the erosion of reproductive rights

55:15 The Hyde Amendment got through a Democratic majority congress

56:15 Evangelicals amassed huge political power in the Reagan era

57:00 Ronald Reagan flipped his position on abortion during his presidency

58:45 Abortion and guns are the two single-issue voting issues

59:30 Republicans extracted huge power out of single issue voters

1:00:45 People are willing to compromise other values for anti-abortion position

1:01:30 Anti-abortion activists know they don’t have majority support

1:03:00 Was “choice” the worst word they could pick? Why not frame it as freedom?

1:05:45 Examining the first deaths after the passage of Hyde amendment

1:06:30 Why didn’t deaths due to the Hyde amendment galvanize voters?

1:09:00 Justices didn’t want 5-4 on Roe so they came up with convoluted argument

1:10:00 A flawed legal rationale isn’t why Roe fell

1:11:30 The abortion rights fight has always been in the states

1:13:15 The debate has been over codifying Roe or codifying a right

1:15:15 Repealing the Hyde amendment was biggest win in years for abortion rights

1:17:00 Planned Parenthood has had an oversized role in defending abortion rights

1:17:45 Would there be a Federalist Society without Roe?

1:18:30 Leonard Leo handed Donald Trump the names of justices that would overturn Roe

1:19:45 Anti-abortion activists copied the playbook of the civil rights movement

1:21:15 Is there anybody on the pro-abortion rights side that deserves blame for Dobbs

1:22:30 Reproductive rights groups like PP and NARAL were constantly outflanked

1:23:30 Fighting against something is more galvanizing than defending something

1:25:00 Anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose, even in conservative areas

1:27:30 Conservatives have laid claim to the words “freedom” and “patriot”

1:29:45 Does the codification of abortion rights happen by the 2030s?

1:31:45 Reproductive rights aren’t talked about in an economic framing

1:33:30 Can abortion rights movement draft off heavy support for birth control?

1:34:00 Anti-abortion activists want to see birth control and IVF outlawed

1:36:00 Will activists go to congress for an answer or will it be a long campaign?

1:37:00 Number of abortions has gone up since the Dobbs decision

1:39:00 Death of Roe was death by a thousand stab wounds from many suspects

1:41:00 Anti-abortion and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum

1:42:15 Republican women look uncomfortable with position they’ve been put in

1:44:15 People sharing their stories with abortion is incredibly important

1:47:00 Abortion may take a backseat to economy, but could affect midterms

1:48:45 ToddCast Top 5 statewide races in Illinois

1:49:45 Illinois has produced 2 presidents and sent 4 governors to prison

1:51:30 #1 Barack Obama’s 2004 senate campaign

1:57:00 #2 1992 senate campaign

2:00:00 1960 United States presidential election

2:03:00 1984 Paul Simon vs. Charles H. Percy

2:05:30 1986 Democratic primary chaos

2:09:00 Honorable mentions

2:11:00 Ask Chuck

2:11:15 Are we normalizing the denigration of female journalists by Donald Trump?

2:15:30 Why do politics feel so much harder now, and we can’t find agreement?

2:17:30 Did gutting Department of State lead to evacuation debacle in middle east?

2:21:15 Did Abigail Spanberger tee up a wave in the next election with gun control legislation?

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