Structural forces behind midterm swings

This week, editors Peter Suderman, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Nick Gillespie, and Matt Welch discuss the political fallout from a shocking Texas special election, in which a Democrat flipped a district that President Donald Trump had won by 17 points in 2024, amid growing backlash to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tactics and hardline immigration enforcement. They discuss what the result says about independent voters, the unraveling of the GOP's 2024 coalition, and why immigration politics now appear to be driving everything from a partial government shutdown to open conflict within the Republican Party over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller's influence in the administration.

The conversation then turns to Trump's decision to tap Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve and what his record suggests about central bank independence. The editors also scrutinize the administration's broader economic messaging, including Trump's Wall Street Journal op-ed defending his tariff policy and claims that inflation has been brought under control, and how those arguments hold up against the data. They then touch on former CNN journalist Don Lemon's arrest and the White House response before turning to a listener question about whether the rhetoric coming out of AI companies points toward a libertarian utopia or a threat to liberty itself. Finally, the editors discuss Moltbook, an emerging platform built around AI systems meant to govern themselves, and why it's stirring so much debate.

0:00—Democrats win special election in Texas

08:30—Partial government shutdown over DHS funding

23:13—Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve

35:13—Don Lemon indicted by the DOJ

43:10—Listener question on AI and liberty

51:54—Moltbook and self-governing AI

57:59—Weekly cultural recommendations

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The Reason Roundtable: Live in Washington, D.C.! February 4

Mentioned in the podcast:

"Shutdown Showdown," by Robby Soave

"Stephen Miller's Hardline Immigration Tactics Are Backfiring," by Peter Suderman

"The Minneapolis Shootings Underline the Advantages of Body Cameras, Which DHS Has Been Slow To Adopt," by Jacob Sullum

"Judge Says ICE Violated Court Orders in 74 Cases—See Them All Here," by C.J. Ciaramella

"Trump Taps Kevin Warsh To Lead Fed," by Peter Suderman

"Trump Claims His Tariffs Have 'Brought America Back.' Here Are 3 Things He Got Wrong," by Eric Boehm

"Trump: 'I Want To Drive Housing Prices Up,'" by Jared Dillian

"Key Inflation Metric Hits 3 Percent, Despite Trump's Claim That Rising Prices Are 'Solved,'" by Eric Boehm

"Bessent Says Construction Jobs Are Booming Under Trump's Tariffs. Government Data Show the Opposite," by Eric Boehm

"One Way to Think About the Don Lemon Prosecution," by Eugene Volokh

"Government's Theory for Prosecuting Don Lemon as to Disruption of Minneapolis Church Service," by Eugene Volokh

"Don Lemon's Bad Day, Looksmaxxing, and King Charles II," by Robby Soave and Christian Britschgi

"No, AI Isn't Plotting Humanity's Downfall on Moltbook," by Elizabeth Nolan Brown

"Will AI Benefit Everyone?" by Gene Epstein

• Producer: Paul Alexander
• Video Editor: Ian Keyser

The post Democrats Are Flipping Trump Districts in Texas? appeared first on Reason.com.