In this episode, we discuss how the recent spike in crude has created a “one-variable market,” where leadership becomes highly binary. Despite the headlines, the broader market hasn’t fallen as much as many expected. Michael explains why investors are focusing less on the current price of oil and more on how long higher prices might last, with the oil futures curve still suggesting the spike could be temporary. Michael walks through a framework investors can use in markets like this: when a single variable dominates and positioning tends to become defensive, until that variable peaks. When it does, leadership in the market can reverse quickly, creating major opportunities for investors looking ahead to the next rotation.
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