This episode is a deep dive into a simple claim: This is the year the mask slipped. The United States has decided that the grand bargain it presided over since 1945 is finished, and the consequences are immediate for markets, alliances, and Europe’s security. We begin in Japan, where a sharp move in long-term government bond yields is forcing a rethink of the global carry trade, and shaking risk assets worldwide. Then we go to Davos, where Mark Carney frames the moment as a “rupture, not a transition,” arguing that integration has become a weapon: tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities. We unpack the post-war deal: America as global policeman, underwriting security in Europe and East Asia, and what America got in return. Then we examine the new reality: tariffs on allies, closeness to rivals, and a Europe that may no longer accept subordination, with Greenland/“the Battle of Nuuk” emerging as the flashpoint that could make the break irreversible. Part one ends with the biggest question of all: if the unipolar world is over, what replaces it? Part two next week looks at Ireland, a country with a profound vested interest in the status quo, now facing its end.
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