Emergence Explains Trend Following

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026

03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following

08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist

12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning

14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery

17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following

23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking

28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now

40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden

49:54 - Prediction versus participation

53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility

01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control

01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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