Signs to Watch in 2026 and 2028

Chuck Todd asks the most uncomfortable question in American politics: is the country's current dysfunction a problem that can be resolved at the ballot box, or are we living through a pre-Civil War style pressure buildup where fundamental divisions keep getting papered over rather than addressed? He draws a striking parallel between today's hyperpartisan era — where both parties are simultaneously fighting each other and tearing themselves apart internally — and the post-Jackson period of American politics, when the country flipped back and forth between parties without ever resolving the underlying wound of slavery. He traces the arc from the Compromise of 1850, when Millard Fillmore believed he'd saved the republic, through the repeal of the Missouri Compromise that led to Bleeding Kansas, to James Buchanan handing Abraham Lincoln a country already on fire — and asks whether modern America can heal its divides without mass violence. He closes with Lincoln's insight that you couldn't solve the divide by managing it — but insists it doesn't have to take a hot civil war to resolve America's fractures, even if it increasingly feels like the country still isn't ready to do the hard work of actually turning the page.

Then, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — the moderate Democrat, former tech entrepreneur, and Harvard-educated candidate for California governor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a policy-dense conversation about what's wrong with California governance and how to fix it. Mahan argues that California has enormous resources but isn't delivering better results, and that the best form of resistance to Trumpism isn't performative opposition but good governance that actually improves people's lives. He walks through his record in San Jose — where he prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing and is now leading the state in reducing unsheltered homelessness — and makes the case that expensive housing is fundamentally a public policy failure driven by environmental review processes that needlessly slow construction. On AI, Mahan notes that Silicon Valley's libertarian tech culture has historically disengaged from civic life, but warns that AI is coming fast and California has both the responsibility and the opportunity to set guardrails that could become the national standard — particularly around transparency in government data use and serious law enforcement around data violations.

The conversation gets politically candid as they navigate the tensions within the Democratic Party. Mahan argues that California Democrats can't blame anyone else for the state's governance failures, that every year revenue goes up faster than population growth yet outcomes get worse, and that highly organized interest groups end up wielding a veto over meaningful change. He opposes the proposed California billionaire wealth tax — not because he's defending billionaires, he insists, but because taxing the ultra-wealthy needs to happen at the federal level to avoid driving companies out of state — and disagrees with Newsom's handling of Proposition 36, arguing the state should force people into either treatment or jail rather than allowing open drug markets. On California's jungle primary, Mahan dismisses concerns about two Republican candidates advancing as overblown, pushes back on the idea he should run as an independent, and contends that Democrats need to update their platform and make government actually work rather than relying on "resistance warrior" posturing. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of NATO in 1949 and asks whether an alliance built on stability and values can survive a transactional president like Donald Trump, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Reaction to March Madness

03:15 Nats are 2-1! 

08:45 Trump orders TSA workers to be paid via executive order

09:45 Both parties are fighting each other, and also infighting

10:45 The house has the hardliners, the senate has the compromisers

11:15 Is the country ready to move on from dysfunction & hyperpartisanship?

13:30 For the 21st century, the country has flipped back & forth between parties

14:15 Similarities to the post-Jackson era of American politics

16:30 Problems and divisions were left unresolved

18:00 The wound over slavery was never healed, pressure kept building

19:00 Fillmore offered the compromise of 1850, thought he saved the republic

20:45 The Missouri Compromise was repealed, led to conflict in Kansas

22:30 Buchanon handed Lincoln a country already on fire

23:15 Can modern America heal its divides without mass violence?

24:15 8 million turned out for No Kings protests

25:45 CPAC was completely different universe compared to No Kings 

27:00 Trump’s poll numbers are tanking on multiple issues

27:45 Democrats brand is still worse than Republicans in polls

28:30 We don’t seem to have the leaders we need to turn the page

29:15 The economy is a mess and it’s almost entirely Trump’s fault

30:15 The GOP hasn’t finished its own internal reckoning

31:30 It feels like America still isn’t ready to turn the page yet

32:30 The two parties have two fundamentally different visions for America

35:00 Will 2026 be a paradigm shift, or yet another pendulum swing?

36:00 Lincoln understood you couldn’t solve the divide by managing it

39:00 It doesn’t have to take a hot civil war to solve America’s divides

47:00 Mayor Matt Mahan (San Jose) joins the Chuck ToddCast

48:30 What got you into politics and made you want to run for mayor?

50:30 What are the other Dems in the race missing that you can bring?

51:45 California has a lot of resources but isn’t delivering better results

53:00 San Jose become the place where Palo Alto workers actually live

54:30 Why has San Jose lacked a real urban center?

55:45 Tech sector is very libertarian & didn’t really engage the community

58:15 Concerns that AI is coming quickly & can do both good and harm

59:45 If California puts guardrails on AI, that could become national standard

1:01:00 Government has responsibility to be transparent about AI data use

1:02:30 California has to create framework for AI security, regulation & transparency

1:03:15 The unknown of AI has created fear amongst the American public

1:04:30 The lack of trust in AI is because social media has been such a negative

1:06:00 There needs to be serious law enforcement around data violations

1:07:15 Media literacy & critical thinking need to be taught in public schools

1:08:45 What are you getting right in tackling homelessness in San Jose?

1:09:45 Prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing

1:11:00 San Jose is leading California in solving homelessness

1:12:00 California hasn’t built enough shelter or treatment facilities

1:13:00 Expensive housing is a public policy failure

1:13:45 Why does environmental review have to slow down construction?

1:15:00 Environmental impacts go far beyond just clean air & water

1:15:45 Technology can drastically speed up environmental review

1:17:00 Infill construction permits should be approved/denied in 30 days

1:18:30 Are tenant protection laws sufficient to protect ADU renters?

1:20:00 22% of new housing built in San Jose is ADUs

1:20:30 Are taxes too high in California?

1:21:15 California has one of the most progressive tax structures in the country

1:21:45 Gas tax is one of California’s most regressive, EV owners need to pay

1:23:15 A per vehicle flat fee for both gas & EVs makes the most sense

1:25:00 Every year revenue goes up faster than population w/ worse outcomes

1:26:15 What has Newsom gotten right & wrong?

1:28:30 Disagreed with Newsom on Prop 36 & force either treatment or jail

1:29:30 Highly organized interests end up getting a veto over change

1:31:30 Best form of resistance to Trumpism is good governance

1:32:30 The math problem for Democrats in California’s jungle primary

1:33:15 The concern over two GOP candidates winning is overblown

1:36:15 Voters are skeptical of both parties, why not run as an independent?

1:38:00 Democrats need to update the party platform & make government work

1:39:30 Voters frustrated with Trump gravitate towards “resistance warriors”

1:41:00 California Democrats can’t blame anyone else for California’s governance

1:41:30 Better ways to make tax code fairer than proposed billionaire wealth tax

1:42:30 Taxing the ultra wealthy needs to be done at the federal level

1:43:15 Opposing CA wealth tax isn’t defending billionaires  

1:45:45 California’s governor race still shaping up

1:47:30 ToddCast Time Machine April 4th 1949

1:48:15 12 countries met to create the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

1:49:30 League of Nations didn’t have any binding enforcement mechanisms

1:50:30 Breakthrough came via the Vandenberg Resolution

1:51:30 Article 5 allowed constitutional discretion, made ratification possible

1:52:45 In 1955, West Germany was admitted, but it was uncomfortable

1:53:30 NATO has a simple purpose, deter the Soviet Union

1:54:00 NATO continued to grow eastward

1:56:15 Trump believes NATO should do whatever he wants them to

1:56:45 Trump has made NATO believe America’s help is conditional

1:57:45 Can an alliance built on certainty function in this era?

1:59:00 What happens to Ukraine portends whether NATO can survive

1:59:15 Ask Chuck

1:59:30 Why has job creation stopped being part of our political discourse?

2:03:30 What other points of leverage like the Strait of Hormuz exist in the world?

2:05:30 Trump conflates political asylum with insane asylums?

2:06:30 Democrats' problem less about leaders & instead poor messaging?

2:09:45 A 2/3rds vote in the senate as a check on the pardon power?

2:11:15 Will attorney John Morgan run for governor?

2:07:45 Thoughts of putting all parties on the same primary ballot?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.