Baseload vs peaker capacity explained

Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a podcast collaboration between Grant Williams and me that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.

2/16/26: Episode 12 — Meredith Angwin

I first came across Meredith’s book Shorting The Grid: The Hidden Fragility of Our Electric Grid in 2022 when I was researching a policy paper on the topic of US National Power that I eventually co-presented at West Point in early 2023.

Meredith’s work elucidated for me a critical example of how the United States is “long on resources, but short on policies,” whereas our biggest Geopolitical rival China is “short on resources, but long on policies” — especially when it comes to the critical issue of Energy Security.

This conversation is extremely topical because:

If AI is potentially the Apex Predator of Capital Light industries, it is important to understand what fuels that Apex Predator — Electricity.

My hope is that this interview not only exposes some of the fragilities embedded in the current US Electric Grid, but hopefully also presents some ideas for solutions and hedges to America’s Energy Achilles' Heel.

Biography

Meredith Angwin is an energy analyst and the author of Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of our Electric Grid, published in 2020. She also has a Substack publication endearingly entitled “The Electric Grandma” that focuses on the reliability of the electric grid.

Meredith has studied and participated in grid over-sight and governance for the bulk of her career. For four years, she served on the Coordinating Committee for the Consumer Liaison Group associated with ISO-NE, her local grid operator. She teaches courses and presents workshops on the electric grid.

As a working chemist, Meredith Angwin headed projects that lowered pollution and increased reliability on the electric grid. Her work included pollution control for nitrogen oxides in gas-fired combustion turbines, and corrosion control in geothermal and nuclear systems. She is inventor on several patents. She was one of the first women to be a project manager at the Electric Power Research Institute where she led projects in renewable and nuclear energy.

Meredith has a Master’s Degree in Chemistry from the University of Chicago.

Where to find Meredith Angwin

Shorting The Grid at the Amazon Store: https://amzn.to/4qJ1P3V

X: https://x.com/MeredithAngwin

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/meredithangwin/

Substack: “The Electric Grandma”

Show Notes

As usual, I am sharing my outline for this conversation. It contains some questions for follow-up research that we did not have time to cover in our conversation.

Interview Agenda for KAOS THEORY 12: Meredith Angwin

Topic: Grid Fragility & Energy Security

* Intro / Bio

* Opening Premise: I’ve observed in a past lecture I gave on Energy Security that the “US is long on resources / short on policies” whereas China is short on resources but long on policies.”

* Brief History of Utility Deregulation

* Compared with Telecom and Airline Deregulation

* Q: How did Utility Deregulation result in higher consumer prices?

* Brief explanation of the before and after of Utility Deregulation

* Q: Can you explain how RTOs work and where grids are worse off?

* Sources of Grid Fragility in the US

* Meredith’s “Failed Trifecta”:

* Dependence on Renewables

* Intermittent Renewables (wind/solar) don’t provide “firm” power, which then relies on “just-in-time” Natural Gas peaker capacity

* “Just In Time” Natural Gas Peaker Capacity

* LNG Import Constraints

* Differentiate between types of Grid Capacity:

* Nameplate Capacity

* Q: Why do policymakers keep confusing capacity with reliability?

* Q: Is there any realistic scenario where intermittent sources form true baseload without massive overbuild?

* Peaker Capacity

* Q :How is Natural Gas Peaker Capacity different from Natural Gas Baseload Capacity?

* Baseload Capacity

* Viable Baseload Sources

* Coal

* Nuclear

* Geothermal

* Natural Gas (CCGTs - Combined Cycle Gas Turbines)

* Q: Explain CCGTs and why Natural Gas Baseload via CCGTs can overcome the JIT liabilities of Natural Gas Peaker Capacity?

* US Energy Achilles’ Heel Trifecta (“Premature Electrification” + AI Data Center Buildout + LNG Export Demand)

* Context: US electricity demand was flat for 15 years, but this trifecta is converging at the same time

* Natural Gas Paradox: Meredith, you highlight the fragility of “just-in-time” gas. I see AI Data Centers as “high load factor” users who want 100% power, 24/7. Coal and nuclear store fuel on site, but Natural Gas is “Just In Time” and depends on pipelines, compressors, electric power to move gas, yet it also seems to be the lowest hanging fruit for Baseload

* Q: Given the decommissioning of Coal and the persistent NIMBYism/time-to-market and cost disadvantages of Nuclear, do “all roads lead to Natural Gas”?

* Q: Do you see any other bridge solution that can compete with Natural Gas in terms of cost and time-to-market advantages?

* Transmission Bottlenecks: JPM data shows long-distance transmission projects take 15-20 years and have been declining for 40 years

* Q: Does “behind-the-meter” colocation solve really anything given the bypass of transmission bottlenecks without the bypass of generation bottlenecks, or are we headed to inevitable Electricity Inflation?

* Concluding Questions

* Q: How did we go from “Resource Advantages” to “Policy Disadvantages”?

* We’re chasing carbon reduction but ignoring Grid Resilience and basic physics.

* Q: What are we getting right? Are there any case studies of successful Energy Grids in America?

* Where they are keeping adequate Base Load

* Q: If you were the “Grid Czar” in a Trump 2.0 administration, how would design the “Perfect Grid?

* Q: How do you deal with the US Energy Achilles’ Heel Trifecta and solve for real-world constraints of ESG/costs/time-to-market/NIMBYism at the same time?

Further Reading

The topic of Energy Security and Policy is near and dear to my heart, and I have written at length about it. Here are some of my past writings you might be interested in:

Recent pieces in 2026:

Guest lecture on the Geopolitics of Energy (US vs. China comparisons):

Compendium of Climate Change / ESG pieces:

Compendium of Oil Macro pieces:

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