Why Forecasted Growth Often Fails

What if you could spot the warning signs of a stock before it collapses? This week, we sit down with one of Australia’s leading quant investors, Dr. David Allen (Head of Long/Short Strategies at Plato Investment Management) to unpack the system behind 150 red flags and why just eight of them can signal serious trouble. From short selling to AI-driven investing, this episode is a masterclass in thinking like a machine.

In this episode:

0:00 Dave Allen’s investing journey

4:30 Measuring geopolitical risk

9:30 What is quant (and “quantamental”) investing?

14:30 Why growth forecasts can destroy returns

17:30 Using AI to analyse earnings calls

28:30 The red flags system explained

42:00 Current shorts + best companies

Stocks & ETFs mentioned in this episode: Plato Global Alpha Complex ETF (ASX: PGA1), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), Walmart (NYSE :WMT), Boss Energy (ASX: BOE), Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG), Corporate Travel Management (ASX: CTD), Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE), Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (ASX: DMP), DroneShield (ASX: DRO), BrainChip (ASX: BRN), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN)

Dave's Recommendations:

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein – the story of Long-Term Capital Management and how even the smartest investors can blow up with too much leverage

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis – using data to remove emotion and make better decisions (the blueprint for systematic investing)

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