Ep. 442: Process, Outcome and Sport with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Importance of Getting Comfortable With Probabilities
In dealing with probabilities, most people only have three settings. Jeff Van Gundy sums it up succinctly on our telecast: It's a make or mislead. In some decisions, the uncertainties are savage. You have to find a way to get comfortable with that range of outcomes. Science is about predictions. Understanding the world until you can make a prediction about what will happen next. If you're not sure, test it. Measure it. Do it again. See if it repeats.
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Transcript
