The Cost of Predicting the Big Surprise

There's never, I don't think there's ever going to be a way to perfectly time the surprise without some cost. There's good reasons to believe why it is that you cannot predict with any accuracy these what I call critical points where the big surprise or the extreme event actually happens. If you pick a time moment at random, your probability is zero that you're going to pick one of those critical points. They're very rare in other words. It makes their rare, it makes a lot more sense.

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