History Beats Forecasts

Many of us feel like we’re drowning in invisible complexity. So I wanted to hit pause and ask a simple question: What are 1-3 decisions that could dramatically simplify my life in 2026? To explore that, I invited five long-time listener favorites: Maria Popova, Morgan Housel, Cal Newport, Craig Mod, and Debbie Millman.

This episode is brought to you by:

• Shopify global commerce platform, providing tools to start, grow, market, and manage a retail business: Shopify.com/tim
• Helix Sleep premium mattresses: HelixSleep.com/Tim

Timestamps:

• [00:00:00] Start.
• [00:01:49] Maria Popova
• [00:02:04] The Cherish Quotient: Stop giving hours to people who rank as “fine.”
• [00:03:15] When you apologize for your priorities, you’re apologizing for your life. Stop!
• [00:04:41] Morgan Housel
• [00:04:50] The do-nothing thesis: Be average long enough and you’ll end up in the top 1%.
• [00:08:42] Read more history, fewer forecasts — and watch the news lose its power over you.
• [00:09:32] How Stephen King’s 11/22/63 illustrates the futility of prediction.
• [00:12:21] Cal Newport
• [00:12:36] What deserves a “yes” when the default is “no?”
• [00:16:38] Deep Work sells two million copies and creates a schizophrenic double life.
• [00:19:07] The unifying insight: Both careers were always about technology and human flourishing.
• [00:24:07] Craig Mod
• [00:24:46] How quitting alcohol has been Craig’s highest-ROI decision.
• [00:27:13] Therapy after a decade of sobriety: The cliché that actually cleared the water.
• [00:30:27] The compounding interest that comes from committing to one craft.
• [00:33:09] Debbie Millman
• [00:34:30] How being offered the CEO seat at her company led to four months of paralysis.
• [00:36:10] The sentence that broke the spell: “If it takes four months, you probably don’t want it.”
• [00:37:38] Ambition changes shape: Validation isn’t fulfillment, and power isn’t purpose.

More about today's guests:

Maria Popova (@mariapopova) thinks and writes about our search for meaning, lensed sometimes through science and philosophy, sometimes through poetry and children's books, always through wonder. She is the creator of The Marginalian (born in 2006 under the name Brain Pickings), which is included in the Library of Congress permanent digital archive of culturally valuable materials. Her books and projects include Traversal, The Universe in Verse, Figuring, The Coziest Place on the Moon, and An Almanac of Birds: 100 Divinations for Uncertain Days.

Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) is a partner at The Collaborative Fund. His book The Psychology of Money has sold more than three million copies and has been translated into 53 languages. Morgan is also the author of Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes and The Art of Spending Money.

Cal Newport is a professor of computer science at Georgetown University, where he is also a founding member of the Center for Digital Ethics. In addition to his academic work, Newport is a New York Times bestselling author who writes for a general audience about the intersection of technology, productivity, and culture. His books have sold millions of copies and been translated into over forty languages. He is also a contributor to The New Yorker and hosts the popular Deep Questions podcast. His latest book is Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout.

Craig Mod (@craigmod) is a writer, photographer, and walker living in Tokyo and Kamakura, Japan. He is the author of Things Become Other Things and Kissa by Kissa. He also writes the newsletters Roden and Ridgeline and has contributed to The New York Times, The Atlantic, Wired, and more. 

Debbie Millman (@debbiemillman) has been named one of the most creative people in business by Fast Company and one of the most influential designers working today by Graphic Design USA. She is the host of Design Matters—a great show and one of the world’s longest-running podcasts. She is also chair of the Masters in Branding Program at the School of Visual Arts in New York City, editorial director of Print magazine, a Harvard Business School Case Study, and a member of the board of directors at the Joyful Heart Foundation.

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