Michael Nadeau went risk-off in October and has been targeting Bitcoin's fair value near $65K. In this episode, he joins Ryan to unpack what changed after BTC broke below $80K, why he does not think this is the macro low yet, and what a real bottom typically looks like (capitulation, then apathy).
They also dig into the new wild card: incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, and why “rates down” could still mean tighter liquidity if the balance sheet shrinks. Mike walks through the key cycle signals he is watching (MVRV/realized price, 200-week moving average, long-term holder behavior, miners), how Bitcoin tends to lead the Nasdaq Composite, and the price zones on his watch list for ETH and SOL as he prepares to scale back into risk.
Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report:
https://x.com/JustDeauIt
https://thedefireport.io/
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:03 New Fed Chair Announcement
8:54 Macro Analysis of Kevin Warsh
14:56 Labor Market Concerns
23:09 Wealth Destruction Phase
26:31 Long-Term Market Projections
31:21 Bitcoin vs. Stocks
39:51 Market Sentiment & Cycles
42:10 Tactical Investment Strategies
55:29 Long-Term Optimism for Crypto
58:06 Closing & Disclaimers
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