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The Fed Hikes Until Something Breaks, Something Broke | Jim Bianco

Inflection Point

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The Fed's Own Version of the Forward 18 Month Forward, Three Month Yield Curve

Yield curve inversion is a good predictor of recession and stocks go down. I really like that framing of the US people kind of thinking about bank as a way to warehouse your cash, right? And then sort of the feds or other bankers sort of viewpoint being like, this is the lubrication of the economy, right? The extension and contraction of credit. So one thing I've been thinking a good amount about is where yield Curve inversion sort of fall here because usually that tends to happen,. But we all see yieldcurve inversion; it has a great track record of predicting a recession.

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