Ep. 778: Feynman Teaches Us All with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
00:00
The Problem With Guessing
The problem is not what might be wrong, but what might be substituted precisely in place of it. As soon as any real definite idea is substituted, it becomes almost immediately apparent that it doesn't work. There's an infinite number of possibilities on these of these simple types. It's something like this. You're sitting working very hard trying to open a safe. And some Joe comes along who doesn't know anything about what you're doing or anything you set up. He says, you know, why don't you try to combination 10, 20, 30? Because you're busy. Maybe you already tried 10, 20,. maybe you know that the middle number is already 32 and not 20
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