Was Condo-to-Detached Ever Sustainable?

Mike and Sabrina debate whether starter-condo appreciation fueling upgrades was realistic and outline a 'Goldilocks' scenario.

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You built equity, planned ahead, and did everything right, so why is the next step on the housing ladder completely out of reach?

Canada’s housing crisis is usually framed around first-time buyers struggling to get into the market. But a growing number of Canadians already made that leap and are now stuck. Couples who bought small condos with the expectation of eventually upgrading are discovering that the path forward has quietly disappeared.

In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux unpack the rise of the “trapped” second-time homebuyer; households in their late 20s to early 40s who did everything right, built equity, and planned ahead, only to find that larger, family-sized homes are further out of reach than ever. With prices outpacing incomes, policy focused on first-time buyers, and a shortage of suitable homes, the traditional housing ladder no longer works.

What happens when an entire generation can’t move up, even after getting in? And what does it mean for family formation, economic mobility, and the future of Canada’s housing system?

Chapters:

00:00 The "Broken Ladder": Canada’s Second-Time Homebuyer Crisis

00:58 Trapped in the Starter Home:The Condo Squeeze

03:01 The Over-Focus on Shoebox Condos vs. Family Homes

04:13 How the Housing Dream Changed

05:44 Is the “Condo-to-Detached” Model a Ponzi Scheme?

06:39 The “Goldilocks” Scenario for Sustainable Housing Gains

08:16 Polling Data: What Ontarians Actually Care About

10:17 The Case for Extending HST Rebates Beyond First-Time Buyers

11:11 Policy Dorks vs. The Public: Finding Common Ground

14:00 Property Taxes: The "Political Third Rail"

15:45 Should Housing Rules Be Handled by the Province?