Contagion Risk Across Highly Indebted Countries

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time

01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime

03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure

07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support

12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences

13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis

18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability

19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks

26:40 - What happens when trust in central banks erodes

35:51 - AI optimism and the risk of large scale malinvestment

39:44 - Lessons from financial history and false starts

41:08 - Why economic models failed to see this coming

48:32 - The dollar, fragmentation, and global currency shifts

57:56 - Europe’s opportunity and its unresolved risks

01:03:24 - Complexity, politics, and why forecasting breaks down

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