The Incoming Recession Is A 2023 Story | David Rosenberg
Inflection Point
00:00
The Yield Curve Is a Ugly Indicator
The only time the yield curve inverted where we didn't have a recession was in 1998 when the treasury market rallied into the inversion. So I'd say that as a price signal, as a leading indicator, the yield Curve still dominates. And it's not just the two's tens or three months tens. It's got nearly a perfect track record. But what we look at, we look at the duration of the yield curve inversion and it's now basically 10 months. We look at the extent of the inversion and the peak inversion was over 100 basis points. When you get over 80% of those curves inverted, which we do, that's a bona fide recession signal.
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