Taiwan: Invasion Risk Remains Low

Geopolitical expert and president of The Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer joins Chuck Todd for a wide-ranging, clear-eyed look at a world entering genuinely uncharted territory—where old rules no longer apply and the United States itself has become a central source of global instability. From Venezuela and Mexico to Europe and Greenland, Bremmer explains how Trump’s transactional, coercive approach is reshaping alliances, undermining collective security, and forcing other countries to adapt fast. The conversation explores why regime change remains elusive in places like Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti; how Latin American elections are increasingly driven by domestic security; and why Europe, shaken by Trump’s unpredictability, is funding Ukraine and rethinking its own defense posture.

The discussion then turns to the Middle East and beyond: the durability of the Iranian regime, the limits of U.S. military power, Saudi Arabia’s rapid modernization, and what comes next for Israel once Netanyahu exits the stage. Bremmer also assesses Trump’s surprising effectiveness in Middle East dealmaking, the long-term damage to Israel’s global standing, Russia’s tightening economic squeeze amid continued political repression, and rising far-right momentum in Europe. The episode closes with a sobering look at China, Taiwan, and whether the next few years bring deterrence—or a historic rupture.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ian Bremmer joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Where we’re going… there are no roads

02:15 The middle east could be heading towards a better place

03:00 Trump gave a wake up call to Europe & others

03:45 America is the top risk to the world & center of instability

05:00 There hasn’t been regime change in Venezuela

06:15 The Venezuelan regime will behave while threatened

07:15 The Venezuelan regime has no interest in sharing power

08:45 National elections could be held in Venezuela in a year

10:15 How much will anti-Americanism affect Latin American elections?

11:30 Domestic security is the #1 voting issue in Latin America

15:00 Brazil’s election will be very close

16:30 Claudia Scheinbaum has been deft in dealing with Trump

17:30 Mexico has been cooperating effectively, negating potential strikes

18:30 Talk of strikes in Mexico has ramped up post-Venezuela

20:15 There’s been a huge number of political assassinations in Mexico

21:00 Trade relations would take a huge hit if America strikes militarily

22:00 There’s less urgency from Trump admin for regime change in Cuba

22:45 Venezuela and Mexico have been propping up the Cuban regime

25:15 Why haven’t we pushed harder for changes in Haiti?

26:30 Almost zero chance there are elections in Haiti this year

27:15 Chance of military invasion of Greenland is extremely low

28:00 A coercion campaign towards Greenland is much more likely

29:15 Denmark very open to negotiations addressing American concerns

30:30 It’d be very easy to ramp up military operation in Greenland

31:15 Trump is undermining the concept of collective security

32:00 Greenland is a legacy play for Trump

32:30 Trump is causing permanent damage to relationship with Europe

34:00 Will the Iranian regime survive the calendar year?

35:15 Iranian regime has large capacity to repress the population

36:00 Looks like the US military will target Iranian police & paramilitary

36:45 Nobody has ever targeted the Iranian judges that send people to die

37:30 Collapse of regime doesn’t feel imminent, but likely within a few years

39:00 Is the US military stretched thin right now?

39:30 What collapse of Iranian regime would mean for the region

41:00 Saudi Arabia is speed running a modernization & reform process

42:00 Any chance Bibi Netanyahu is out in Israel soon?

43:00 Normalization with Saudi Arabia is on the table once Bibi is out

44:00 The Israel/Gaza ceasefire was improbable win for Trump

44:30 Trump’s transactional negotiating works well in the middle east

46:30 Settlements expanding in west bank, that won’t be unwound

48:15 Nobody has done more damage to Israel’s reputation than Bibi

49:00 Russians giving Trump nothing in negotiations over Ukraine

49:30 Europeans are funding Ukraine after Trump cut them off

50:30 Europeans bought a veto over Trump selling out Ukraine

51:45 Still very little meaningful dissent inside Russia over the war

52:45 Russian economy is starting to take more of a hit

53:45 Giorgia Meloni is probably most secure leader in western Europe

55:00 Far right in Germany will do well in elections

55:30 Does China take Taiwan in 2027 & does Trump stand in the way?

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