Vaccine economics and NNT calculations

On this, our 325th Evolutionary Lens livestream, we discuss Hanta virus and drought. First: what is the natural history of Hantavirus, do any Hantaviruses transmit directly from human to human, and what is going on with the M.V. Hondius, the cruise ship on which Hantavirus has made a stand? Given its mechanisms of action, Ivermectin is likely to treat Hantavirus (a negative sense single-stranded RNA virus), but the WHO dismisses the possibility. Moderna is working on a Hantavirus vaccine, even though the Number Needed to Treat is sky high. What is going on? Then: in Washington state, we’re experiencing a very wet drought. The Department of Ecology has declared a drought (again), and the snow pack is low, but all other indicators—from rivers to reservoirs to soil moisture—are excellent. Cliff Mass, atmospheric scientist, puts the evidence in one place and calls bull on the drought diagnosis.

*****

Our sponsors:

Xlear: Xylitol nasal spray that acts as prophylaxis against respiratory illnesses by reducing the stickiness of bacteria and viruses. Find Xlear online, or at your local pharmacy, grocery store, or natural products store.

Fresh Pressed Olive Oil Club: Freshly harvested and delicious. Go to http://www.GetFreshDarkHorse.com to get a bottle of the best olive oil you’ve ever had for $1 shipping.

CrowdHealth: Pay for healthcare with crowdfunding instead of insurance. It’s way better. Use code DarkHorse at http://JoinCrowdHealth.com to get 1st 3 months for $99/month.

*****

Join us on Locals! Get access to our Discord server, exclusive live streams, live chats for all streams, and early access to many podcasts: https://darkhorse.locals.com

Heather’s newsletter, Natural Selections (subscribe to get free weekly essays in your inbox): https://naturalselections.substack.com

Our book, A Hunter-Gatherer’s Guide to the 21st Century, is available everywhere books are sold, including from Amazon: https://amzn.to/3AGANGg (commission earned)

Check out our store! Epic tabby, digital book burning, saddle up the dire wolves, and more: https://darkhorsestore.org

*****

Mentioned in this episode:

Hantavirus and the elders: https://asm.org/articles/2024/october/indigenous-knowledge-solved-mysterious-outbreak

Toledo et al 2022. Evidence for human-to-human transmission of hantavirus: a systematic review. The Journal of infectious diseases, 226(8): 1362-1371: https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/226/8/1362/6369311

Zaidi & Dehgani-Mobaraki 2022. The mechanisms of action of ivermectin against SARS-CoV-2—an extensive review. The Journal of antibiotics, 75(2): 60-71: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41429-021-00491-6

The WHO on the recent outbreak: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON599

Cliff Mass – There is no drought emergency: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-is-no-drought-emergency-in.html

Statewide drought declared in WA: https://ecology.wa.gov/about-us/who-we-are/news/2026/april-8-statewide-drought-declared-due-to-dismal-snowpack

Support the show