The trading landscape for European rates has shifted violently in just a matter of weeks. In this episode of The European Market Brief, host Mark Longo sits down with two industry experts to dissect the sudden pivot from rate-cut expectations to a reality where rate hikes are back on the table.
Joining the program are Dan Collins, Head of Futures and Options Rates at Aurel Partners, and Andreas Stillert, Vice President and Global Product Lead for Short-Term Interest Rate (STIR) Products at Eurex. Together, they break down the "dual system" of Euribor and ESTR, the dramatic flip in option skew from calls to puts, and how geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is refueling inflation fears across the pond.
In this episode, we explore:
-
The ESTR vs. SOFR Dynamic: Understanding the nuances of the European risk-free rate versus its US counterpart.
-
The Great Pivot: Why the market went from 100% certainty of rate cuts to pricing in potential hikes by year-end.
-
Volatility & Skew: Analyzing the "unthinkable" shift in the options market over the last fortnight.
-
Listener Q&A: We tackle "The Red Phone" questions regarding private credit risks in Europe and the mechanics of the ESTR/repo basis trade.
