Speed Score Analysis - What's the Base Rate Fallacy?

There is some correlation between speed score and a player's top season and points per game during his first three years in the league. But that correlation has a lot of additional factors at play. Good running max are probably going to be more gifted athletes than other players. And they're generally getting drafted earlier, so when they get more opportunity, they score more points. It seems obvious that speed score matters a lot then, right? We've got 17% of players above a 106 speed score to get to 15 PPR points per game. Then it's 12% in the 100 to 106 range; just 7 to 8% when that speed score is under 100.