CIO themes: 2026 geopolitical outlook

Markets have exhibited some sensitivity to geopolitical concerns amid debates over the status of Greenland, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, though he also notes that those concerns can be somewhat transient. 

“Usually markets tend to shrug these off,” Deepak says, “because if they’re not instrumental in changing the macro backdrop, markets say ‘Okay, nothing’s changing.’” He noted that the tariff threats from the US had been a particular concern, so there was some relief when the White House changed course.

The Federal Reserve will be in focus this week, and Deepak says it is not only because of an impending policy decision. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged, and “I think the Fed should be comfortable with a pause as there hasn't really been much change either around inflation or labour market,” Deepak says. But also of interest is the expectation that President Trump will soon nominate the next Fed chair, and the Supreme Court could soon issue a decision related to the Fed’s independence from politics.

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