Markets, Inflation Expectations, and Fed Policy

Nobody knows how screwed everyone actually is right now. Not Iran. Not the Gulf. Everyone. The IEA chief just said this crisis is worse than both 1970s oil shocks combined — and that was before Iran threatened every desalination plant feeding 100 million people, every undersea cable carrying $10 trillion in daily transactions, and every LNG terminal keeping Europe warm this winter. The bond market is screaming: the 20-Year Note just broke 5%, the Fed killed its rate-cut forecast, and Trump — who said "obliterate" 36 hours ago — is suddenly talking "productive conversations." Iran says those talks never happened. The strait is still closed. The fertilizer is still blocked. The planting window is closing. One asset was built for exactly this moment — and it's up 34% against gold since the war began. We break it all down.

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