Scenarios: preferential exports and untenable outcomes

Today’s Macro Minute focuses on whether investors should chase or fade recent market rallies. While short-term strength is being driven by strong fundamentals and action-biased trading, Darius warns that markets are underpricing the risk of a prolonged geopolitical conflict—particularly around Iran’s growing influence over global energy supply. The key takeaway: rallies may persist in the near term, but investors should stay disciplined and cautious given crowded positioning and rising left-tail risks tied to energy flows and global liquidity.