Defense Tech Has Opportunity and Bubble Risk

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Today’s show:

Silicon Valley just lined up its biggest liquidity event in years: SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO that could target a $1.75 trillion valuation — potentially the largest public offering in history. Meanwhile, a new Quinnipiac poll shows that 62% of Americans aren't excited about AI, and 70% think it will destroy their jobs. The disconnect between Sand Hill Road and Main Street has never been wider, and this panel is here to argue about what to do about it.

Jason Calacanis and co-host Alex Wilhelm are joined by Delian Asparouhov, Partner at Founders Fund and co-founder of Varda Space Industries; Salen Churi, General Partner at Trust Ventures, focused on regulated industries and physical infrastructure; and Larsen Jensen, Founder and GP of Harpoon Ventures and former Navy SEAL.

They dig into the SpaceX IPO and what it means for LP liquidity, founder formation, and venture capital's comeback story; the gap between Silicon Valley's AI optimism and public hostility; whether defense tech is in a bubble after $49 billion flooded the sector in 2025; the Marc Andreessen "zero introspection" thesis for founders; America's reindustrialization challenge and the rare earths supply chain crisis; and Artemis’s path to putting boots back on the Moon.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

1:09 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!

3:50 SpaceX files confidentially for IPO: $1.75T valuation, June target

9:00 Will the SpaceX IPO reinvigorate venture capital?

10:25 Every.io - For all of your incorporation, banking, payroll, benefits, accounting, taxes or other back-office administration needs, visit https://every.io

14:40 Quinnipiac poll: Americans use more AI but trust it less

17:31 AI's PR crisis: Dario vs. Jensen, and who's communicating well

18:02 Jason's "Invest America" proposal: give workers equity stakes

19:55 Northwest Registered Agent - Get more when you start your business with Northwest. In 10 clicks and 10 minutes, you can form your company and walk away with a real business identity — Learn more at https://northwestregisteredagent.com/twist

21:39 Larsen: Silicon Valley is walking into the same trap as China offshoring

29:04 PaperOS - Whether you're raising a round, launching a fund, or managing a venture portfolio, PaperOS can unlock simplicity and scale across your empire of capital, contracts, and companies. Claim your $10,000 credit at https://paperos.com/twist

29:50 Polymarket: 24% chance of a federal AI data center moratorium

33:57 Marc Andreessen on zero introspection (David Senra podcast clip)

46:48 Is defense tech in a bubble?

1:10:32 Saronic raises $1.75B for autonomous drone boats

1:25:07 Anthropic vs. OpenAI: where would you put your entire net worth?

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