The 4% Rule Is a Worse Calculation Trade-Off

The 4% rule is the equivalent of, hey, if I've got a million dollars, let's make a plan where I die with $2.5 million, 30 years from now never having used $2 million in my original $1 million. That's an equivalent calculation trade off because sequences matter and even if you get a great long-term average return, you can get a really lousy sequence. But again, the twin reality for it is setting your spending low enough to withstand the worst sequence we've seen in 30 years just results in either a big old pile of money left over at the end that you didn't use.

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