The Inverted Yield Curve and the Economy

Tyler Cowen says the Fed has been trying to cool demand and they've achieved that in most interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. The New York Fed model of the yield curve shows a 65% Probability of recession in the next 12 months, he says. He thinks we have to be careful about reading too much into the yield curve right now just because quantitative tightening Muddies the waters.