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#1124 Darius Dale | Should We Expect The Fed To Pivot?

The Pomp Podcast

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Is the Recession on Day One of the New Business Cycle?

The recession process really takes several quarters, particularly when you don't have the sort of leverage cycle dynamics in the private sector that would suggest more ratcheting down of activity. The spread between the 10 year nominal treasury yield minus the 10 year earth of three month nominal treasury yields has been at least, you know, empirically proven to be the best recession indicator. You look at the six to 12 month forward interval, there's a 75 percent chance that the economy is still growing in the six to12 month interval.

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