MacroVoices #384 Darius Dale: Blow-Off Top Coming Before Bears Get Validated
Macro Voices
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The Resilience of the Housing Market
The new home sales segment of the housing market is up 5.7 and plus 20% respectively. We have these very low mortgage debt service ratios in the US economy at only 3.9%. The effective mortgage rate on mortgage debt outstanding is only 3.55%. Then the marginal mortgage rate for anyone in the market to buy a house is 7.3%. So that positive spread at 326 basis points is effectively causing a stasis in the existing home sales market. And this is why in the bottom panel, you're seeing the housing starts to existing home sales ratio,. breach and all time high and in most recent month of data at 38%. Darius, let's move on to China. What
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