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Ep. 236: Robin Hanson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Wisdom of Crowds in Prediction Markets

In a prediction market, that particular price is viewed as the most accurate representation of the issue at hand. So if you create an asset that says pays $100 if we open the store on time and it turns out the current price is $0.60 on the dollar, pays $10 if it's open, then it's price is $6. But that gives you a rough estimate that there's a 60% chance that your store will be open on time. It's essentially going for the wisdom of crowds instead of just one particular opinion.

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