Noah Smith is an economist and author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.
He returns to Doom Debates to share a massive update to his P(Doom), and things get a little heated.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:00:41 — Welcome Back Noah Smith!
00:01:40 — Noah's P(Doom) Update
00:03:57 — The Chatbot-Genie-God Framework
00:05:14 — What's Your P(Doom)™
00:09:59 — Unpacking Noah's Update
00:16:56 — Why Incidents of Rogue AI Lower P(Doom)
00:20:04 — Noah's Mainline Doom Scenario: Much Worse Than COVID-19
00:23:29 — Society Responds After Growing Pains
00:29:25 — Agentic AI Contributed to Noah's Position
00:31:35 — Should Yudkowsky Get Bayesian Credit?
00:33:59 — Are We Communicating the Right Way with Policymakers?
00:40:16 — Finding Common Ground on AI Policy
00:47:07 — Wrap-Up: People Need to Be More Scared
Links
Doom Debate with Noah Smith — Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwmJ-OnK2I4
Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion
Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog
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