Modeling Vacancy and Returns

#712: Jeff Hurst, CEO of Furnished Finder, joins us to break down what midterm rentals are, who they're for, and why now might be the best time to get in.

A midterm rental is a furnished unit rented for 30 days or longer - longer than a hotel stay, shorter than a traditional lease. Cities have been regulating Airbnb-style short-term rentals out of existence, leaving a wave of furnished properties with nowhere to go. That supply is now shifting toward the midterm market, driven by three primary tenant types: corporate and skilled trade workers, traveling healthcare professionals, and relocating families doing a "try before you buy" neighborhood test run.

We get into the specifics of what it costs to furnish a midterm rental (about $7 per square foot, compared to $30 to $40 for a short-term rental), where owners typically overspend (treating it like a leisure destination), and where they underinvest (quality mattresses, blackout curtains, kitchen functionality). Jeff also explains how to model out your returns, estimate vacancy, and use tools like Furnished Finder's market insights tab and AirDNA data to vet a market before you buy.

On the question of where to invest, Jeff walks through a layered research approach - starting with population migration, proximity to hospitals and universities, commuter corridors, and school districts. He's bullish on mid-sized cities with data center build-outs and expanding healthcare infrastructure, and argues that markets like those around northwest Arkansas, parts of Texas, and mid-sized Midwestern cities offer better risk-adjusted returns than the leisure destinations that dominated the short-term era.

Jeff also covers HOA red flags to look for, how to approach off-market deals, what the regulatory environment looks like for midterm (spoiler: almost no city is restricting it), and why the category today feels a lot like short-term rentals at their peak.

Timestamps:

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(00:00) Intro

(05:12) What midterm rentals are

(07:00) Why cities banned short-term rentals

(08:19) Who rents midterm — nurses, corporate workers, relocating families

(14:45) Extended stay hotels vs. midterm rentals

(16:34) Hospitality expectations for hosts

(19:22) How much to spend on furnishings

(21:02) Regulatory risk — nearly zero

(32:16) How to estimate vacancy and returns

(45:58) How to pick a market

(52:16) Why mid-sized cities win

(57:42) Following extended stay hotel construction as a demand signal

(1:13:00) Who owns midterm rentals — older than you'd think

(1:14:36) Why midterm feels like AirBNB in 2012

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