MacroVoices #384 Darius Dale: Blow-Off Top Coming Before Bears Get Validated
Macro Voices
00:00
The US Economy in a Recession
We are seeing a sharp enough rise in the private, non-finance sector debt service ratio. That number is going to continue to go higher as a kind of long and variable lags of monetary tightening catch up to the economy. If you don't have the kind of capronous allocation vulnerabilities that you have historically had in previous business cycles, so it ultimately means that the terminal fed funds rate is actually going to be much higher. The more cyclical aspects of the US economy are actually just significantly smaller shares in this in recent business cycles. And then there's labor-horroring on slide 54, where we just showed a total labor force relative to its pre-COVID and
Play episode from 24:32
Transcript
