Ukraine War at Four Years

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Activist investor Boaz Weinstein is stepping up his warnings on private credit, saying the turmoil surrounding Blue Owl Capital’s funds is exposing deeper cracks in the $1.8 trillion industry.
“All you need is the snowball to start going down the hill and it started. Blue Owl is right in the middle of that,” the Saba Capital Management founder said Tuesday at the iConnections Global Alts conference in Miami Beach, Florida. “I think we are in the super-early innings of the wheels coming off the car.” The comment was the latest salvo by Weinstein against the private credit industry, which is reeling from worries about overspending on artificial intelligence and lending standards after Blue Owl restricted withdrawals from one of its funds.

Saba Capital, alongside Cox Capital Partners, has announced cash tenders for stakes in three funds managed by Blue Owl Capital at steep discounts to their stated value, after the alternative investment firm restricted redemptions in one vehicle and began selling loans to raise cash for investors.

The offer price is expected to be 20%-35% below net asset value and aims to give a liquidity solution to retail investors wanting to exit positions that have been harder to redeem as withdrawals surged across the sector.

During the panel, Weinstein warned about market dislocations, where some credit assets are currently trading at historic highs while related equity and fund structures are at massive discounts. He added that he is looking to launch a fund to capitalize on an expected wave of opportunities, particularly around the Blue Owl situation and similar semi-liquid products facing redemption pressures.
Saba and Cox sent notices to buy Blue Owl Capital Corporation II shares on Feb. 17. They plan to make similar offers for Blue Owl Technology Income Corp. and Blue Owl Credit Income Corp., which are also business development companies. Blue Owl’s shares have plunged around 50% in the past year, even as the firm’s revenue continued to climb in that period.

Others have sounded warnings as well in recent days. JPMorgan Chase and Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon on Monday drew parallels between the present day and the era leading up to the 2008 global financial crises, when the scramble to make loans ended disastrously.

Today's show features:

• Bloomberg News Finance Reporter Katherine Doherty on JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon saying he's starting to see parallels to the era before the 2008 financial crisis
• Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Chief Market Strategist at New York Life Investments on the US economy and geopolitical risks in markets
• Bloomberg Tech Co-Host Ed Ludlow on Meta’s multi-billion dollar investment in AMD equipment and stock, as well as the latest news from Anthropic
• Elise Giuliano, Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Columbia University, on the four-year mark since the official start of the War in Ukraine

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