Underinvestment Creates Commodity Supply Gaps

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Adrian Day to the show. Adrian Day is the CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the EuroPacific Gold Fund. The discussion centers on the current state of gold, silver, and global commodities markets, with Day providing deep insights into current investment trends and opportunities. Day remains bullish on gold, citing historical market cycles and key buyers like central banks and Tether. He notes that central banks are actively diversifying away from the US dollar due to concerns about government profligacy and potential asset weaponization. The trend of dollar reserve reduction has been ongoing for years, accelerated by events like the confiscation of Russian central bank assets.

Regarding silver, Day sees potential but with more risks compared to gold. He highlights a genuine physical deficit in the silver market and increasing demand from sectors like solar panel manufacturing. However, he cautions that high prices might incentivize manufacturers to seek more efficient alternatives. In the broader commodity complex, Day finds significant value opportunities. He points out that commodities are trading near 100-year lows relative to financial assets, with underinvestment in sectors like oil, gas, and copper creating potential for price appreciation. He emphasizes the long lead times for new commodity projects and the challenges of rapidly increasing production.

Day’s investment approach focuses on global markets, with a current preference for reducing US exposure and exploring opportunities in markets like Britain, Singapore, and Hong Kong. He remains particularly interested in gold mining stocks, especially mid-tier producers in stable jurisdictions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:50 – Bullish Case for Gold
00:01:58 – Gold Market Cycles
00:04:04 – Central Bank Buying Reasons
00:10:27 – Tether Gold Stablecoin
00:14:10 – Dollar Reserve Decline
00:18:08 – Gold Settlement Potential
00:22:33 – Silver Market Insights
00:30:20 – Commodity Value Opportunities
00:38:20 – Gold Mining Investments
00:45:24 – Other Commodities Analysis
00:50:53 – Oil and Gas Plays
00:53:52 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://adrianday.com/

Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world.

He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.