Prediction Markets: Fraud, Gaming, and Market Solutions

Katherine Mangu-Ward — editor-in-chief of Reason magazine and author of the viral New York Times op-ed "Libertarians: We Told You So" — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sharp, wide-ranging conversation about what the libertarian moment looks like when executive power has run amok. She opens with a disarming observation: Americans tend to discover their inner libertarian whenever they dislike the president — and notes that a version of her op-ed could have been written under Biden too. But the Trump era, she argues, has vindicated libertarian warnings in ways that should alarm everyone: warrantless ICE entries that have silenced the very conservatives who once championed the Fourth Amendment, tech CEO congressional hearings that were really about locking in corporate access to state power, and a cronyism so brazen it has paradoxically made citizens hate corporations more than the government enabling them. 

The conversation takes a fascinating turn into policy territory rarely explored on political podcasts. Mangu-Ward engages seriously with the question of whether there's a libertarian case for nationalized healthcare. They also tackle Trump turning Democrats into free-trade activists, the risks of economic nationalism, why demands for safety net cuts fall far short of solving the budget problem, and the fine line between prediction markets and sportsbooks. Looking ahead to 2026, Mangu-Ward points to Arizona — a state that has always produced what she calls "mutant strains" of libertarianism — as the place to watch for whether libertarian-leaning candidates can finally break through at the ballot box.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Katherine Mangu-Ward joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 We’re all more libertarian when we don’t like the president

01:45 Motivation for writing NYT op-ed “Libertarians: We Told You So”

03:30 Libertarian has been typically conservative in western U.S.

04:30 Kentucky has been sending most libertarians to congress

05:30 Different version of Op-ed could have been written under Biden

07:15 American elections recently haven’t given anyone a mandate

08:30 Supreme Court begged congress to do their job in tariff decision

10:00 Where are the conservatives now that warrantless entries are happening?

11:30 Trump has bullied out libertarians and unsupportive Republicans

13:45 Biggest worries about big tech are worries about the state

15:15 Don’t want big tech to enable state actions against individual rights

17:15 We might need a cultural sea change for congress to rein in big tech

18:45 Trump’s cronyism has made citizens hate only corporations, not government

19:30 Less government reduces opportunity for cronyism

21:30 Tech CEO hearings were CEOs trying to lock in their place

22:30 Market discipline does seem to be working in the AI space

24:00 Where is some government regulation acceptable for libertarians?

26:00 Trump has turned Democrats into free-trade activists

28:30 The risks of economic nationalism

30:00 Where do libertarians draw the line on the social safety net?

30:45 Demands for safety net cuts fall very short of solving budget problem

32:30 Student loan debt forgiveness would benefit higher earners

34:00 More people want government to have a larger role

36:15 Is there a libertarian argument for nationalized healthcare?

38:15 Regulation in healthcare & childcare have exploded costs

40:30 Market forces haven’t worked in healthcare pricing

42:00 We’re being lied to about pricing practices in healthcare

43:15 Should insurance be able to price based on preexisting conditions?

45:00 Catastrophic coverage is basically illegal now

46:15 We should just pay out of pocket for small, regular procedures

47:45 Charity or government subsidies should assist preexisting conditions

50:30 How would a libertarian clean up the prediction markets?

53:00 Not a major difference between prediction markets & sportsbooks

55:30 Will libertarians have a moment at the ballot box in 2026?

56:15 Arizona has always produced mutant strains of libertarian

59:30 Arizona has always been libertarian socially & economically

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