Is the Soft Landing So Far Fetched?

Why is the soft landing so far fetched to you at this point? If we're starting from such a higher level than perhaps we we otherwise might have been, why is it so hard to believe? I give you history, but maybe history is not the best read in this case. But i guess my point is that if it does happen, that means that the earnings estimates that we see are probably proximately accurate, maybe a me slightly too high.