In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.
Links:
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro
0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing
2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers
4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help?
5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher
6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas
7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials
8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction
9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater
10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026
12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts
14:15 How lenders are feeling right now
15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000
16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms
18:05 You pay for it after the election
18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote?
21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing?
22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments
26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy
27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it?
28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means
32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate
33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate
35:30 Closing
