Risk versus disruption in market psychology

The world changed forever on February 28th, 2026. The consequences of the Iran war will take many years to play out. But one fact already seems clear: we are not going back to the world that existed before the conflict began.

To assess what the war means for the future of oil, gas and power, host Ed Crooks is joined by three of the most experienced voices in the geopolitics of energy. Regular guest Amy Myers Jaffe is the Director of NYU's Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab. Samantha Gross, returning to the show, is the Director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution. And Amos Hochstein, appearing for the first time, is a Managing Partner at TWG Global and former senior energy advisor to President Biden and the US State Department.

Their conclusion is stark: this is the worst energy crisis the world has ever seen. The shared view is that the disruption we are seeing now is more serious than the oil shocks of the 1970s, and broader in its reach than anything markets have had to price in living memory. 

The loss of global oil supply from the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is bad enough, but the effects do not end there. As well as 10-12 million barrels a day of crude supply, the world has lost 20% of its LNG supply and about 30% of its urea, used for fertilizer. We are seeing cascading shortages of products that you might never have connected to the Gulf region, from hospital gloves to semiconductor-grade helium.

So why haven’t prices yet reflected the full scale of the shock? Amos Hochstein draws a distinction between a risk environment and a disruption environment. Markets know how to price risk, he says, but they do not know how to price physical shortages. Meanwhile, the belief that President Trump can end the war on his own timeline is creating a dangerous feedback loop: markets stay calm because they think the president will intervene; the president sees calm markets and feels no urgency to act. But Samantha Gross argues that President Trump doesn't get to decide when this ends. The Iranians do.

The disruption is already hitting unevenly. Sri Lanka has moved to a four-day working week. Thailand has asked workers to stay home. Airports across Asia are shutting down, not because jet fuel is expensive, but because they don’t have any. As Amos Hochstein warns, the impact isn't growing in a straight line: it's exponential. Poorer nations are absorbing it first, but the consequences will continue to spread.

The episode also looks beyond the immediate crisis to the longer-term implications. Amy Myers Jaffe predicts an acceleration of investment in new energy technologies, including nuclear fusion. Amos Hochstein maps out the infrastructure changes that he thinks will be needed, including investment in new pipelines so that oil and gas exports from the Gulf can bypass the Strait of Hormuz completely. Building all that new infrastructure would be a massive undertaking, but he thinks the world will come together to back it, because it relies on energy from the Gulf for so much. A fundamental rethinking of supply security is under way.

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