Problems with the 'broken-stick' analysis

What’s the secret of living to 100? Well, it might be living in a “Blue Zone”: one of the handful of places around the world where there are apparently loads of centenarians. Except, as has been argued recently, Blue Zones might be a load of nonsense.

In this epside of The Studies Show, relative spring chickens Tom and Stuart look at some of the recent controversies in demography. Is there a limit to the human lifespan? Did someone really live 122 years? And how could researchers not have noticed the glaring problems with the whole idea of Blue Zones?

The Studies Show is brought to you by our new sponsor: Semafor. They’re a purveyor of high-quality newsletters offering in-depth information in digestible chunks (and they happen to be Tom’s employer). This week, we looked at Semafor Technology, in which Reed Albergotti interviewed will.i.am on AI and the future of music.

Show notes

* “Millions Now Living Will Never Die”

* Nature paper on “Evidence for limits to the human lifespan”

* Stuart’s response letter

* Saul Newman’s critique

* Guardian article and Retraction Watch article on the resulting controversy

* 2020 New Yorker article on Jeanne Calment, the 122-year-old woman

* 2004 paper on “Blue Zones”; 2013 paper

* Blue Zones website and “Live to 100” cookbook

* Blue Zones food guidelines

* Saul Newman’s paper (2024 version) critiquing Blue Zones and supercentenarian research

* Saul Newman wins the Ig Nobel Prize

Credits

* The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.

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