UGO10: The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe
Top Traders Unplugged
The Four Seasons of History
Howe outlines the cyclical model—spring, summer, autumn, winter—and identifies today's period as a Fourth Turning.
Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before.
They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection.
This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now
03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works
10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do?
16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat
20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error
26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change
33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals
39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history
45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate
48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges
52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question
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