When Does a Supply Hole Become Shortages?

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston

(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter

(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game

(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory

(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters

(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity

(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm

(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit

(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks

(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox

(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America

(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate

(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines

(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage

(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines

(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table

(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation

(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand

(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks

(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent

(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning

(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy

(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro